Food Shortage

This article by Jeffery Sachs in Scientific American Magazine caught my eye in light of yesterday's blog - check it out! The picture is from the article referenced.

***

I take a couple of actuarial lessons from the article.

First, that over time models age. What was a workable model today, needs refreshing or even, overhauling, for use tomorrow. This isn't the fault of the modeling process (I was disturbed that Malthus being "ridiculed" in economics classrooms).

Second, that models can always be improved. We are warned not to over-parametrize models, and that's not what I'm saying. Improvement can come from discovering or including other factors not included in the original design or even removing something that is no longer predictive of the outcomes. Improvement can also mean a better, updated fit based on more current information. (Such as shifts in fertility and mortality in Malthus' model).

Lastly, models should never be taken as the gossip truth in any case. The lesson that economists (and resource management) should have taken from Malthus' work was not the precise year or the precise population that would "break the bank", so to speak. The lesson was that attention should be paid to our consumption and world population. Just like when you're growing that 401(k) balance, the earlier you start dealing with these issues, the easier the fix might be.